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Youth Vote Shifts Toward Trump in 2024 Election
Written by Peter Boykin on June 19, 2024
Youth Vote Shifts Toward Trump in 2024 Election
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Youth Vote Shifts Toward Trump in 2024 Election
Maybe the kids are alright…
Recent polls indicate a surprising trend: young voters are warming to Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. The question arises: Are these voters aligning with Trump’s policies, or is President Biden driving them away? The answer might lie in a combination of both factors.
Polling Data Reveals Shift
According to the latest New York Times poll, young voters aged 18 to 29 favor Biden by a slim margin of two points, 47% to 45%. A Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading Biden among voters aged 18 to 34, 48% to 47%. This is a stark contrast to the 2020 presidential election, where Joe Biden secured the youth vote by a significant 24%. The last time a Republican won this demographic was in 1988.
Biden’s Struggling Message
Aidan Kohn-Murphy, founder of Gen Z for Change—a group that supported Biden in 2020—stated in the Washington Post, “Biden is out of step with young people on a number of key issues.” Key issues where Biden seems to be losing support include:
– The War in Gaza: A majority of young voters, 51%, support the Palestinians, while only 15% support Israel.
– TikTok Ban: Biden’s support for a TikTok ban is perceived as an attack on free speech. Consequently, 67% of Gen Z voters say this makes them less likely to vote for him.
– Economic Challenges: High inflation and interest rates have made essential costs like food and housing unaffordable for young people entering the workforce or trying to purchase their first home.
Trump’s Resonating Message
The 45th president’s message appears to be resonating with young voters for several reasons:
– Gaza Conflict: While Trump supports Israel, he promises to bring a peaceful end to the conflict, citing his administration’s four years of peace as evidence of his capability.
– TikTok Engagement: Trump recently joined TikTok, emphasizing that Biden wants to shut the platform down, thus appealing to younger users.
– Economic Performance: When asked about Trump’s handling of the economy, 65% of young voters approved, compared to just 33% for Biden.
Social Media Dynamics
According to CredoIQ, a social media analytics firm, nearly 25% of the top left-leaning content creators on TikTok have posted anti-Biden content in the first four months of 2024, garnering over 100 million views. This content is often created by young, non-white liberals who share the belief that the U.S. Government, and specifically Joe Biden, aims to restrict free speech and information flow.
Trump’s Adaptation to New Media
In 2016, Trump broke political norms with an ‘anyplace, anytime’ approach, dominating cable TV. For the 2024 campaign, he has adapted this strategy to new media, appearing on podcasts, YouTube shows, and attending live events such as UFC and Formula 1. He has also made campaign stops at local venues, including bodegas, firehouses, and even in the South Bronx.
The shift in the youth vote suggests a significant realignment in political affiliations, one that underscores the importance of addressing the issues most pertinent to young Americans. This analysis highlights the potential impact of these changing dynamics on the upcoming presidential election.
[Source: Washington Post, Axios]
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