CAN GOP TAKE THE SENATE?

CAN GOP TAKE THE SENATE

Written by Peter Boykin on October 26, 2022

CAN GOP TAKE THE SENATE?

Shared By Peter Boykin – American Political Commentator / Citizen Journalist

CAN GOP TAKE THE SENATE?

Today we’re talking about the Senate races, where the chamber is currently split between 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats with Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote. That means Republicans need to gain just 1 seat to take back majority control of the Senate.

There are 35 Senate seats up for re-election this cycle. 21 are currently held by Republicans. 14 are held by Democrats. And most of these seats are either reliably Democrat or reliably Republican. But…

A few key races are going to decide the balance of power in the Senate for the next two years. Here’s where you should be looking:

In Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz (R) and John Fetterman (D) are battling over an open Senate seat. Polls have had Fetterman up by about 1% up until now. But after last night’s disastrous debate performance [clips below], I think you’re going to see Oz pull ahead.

In Ohio, J.D. Vance (R) is challenging incumbent Senator Tim Ryan (D). Vance is up by several points in all recent polls. As long as Ohioans turn out, this will be a key Republican pick-up.

In Georgia, Hershel Walker (R) is challenging incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D). The polling average gives Warnock less than a 1% edge, making this a true toss-up. I believe the Governor’s race [which we’ll talk about tomorrow], where the Republican is going to crush Stacey Abrams, is going to help get Walker across the finish line as voters vote red down the ballot.

In Nevada, Adam Laxalt (R) is challenging incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro (D). Laxalt is up in the polls by about 1%. I don’t trust Nevada elections – I think they’re corrupt [topic for another day] but this could be a big pickup for Republicans.

In Arizona, Blake Masters (R) is challenging incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D). Polling averages have Mark Kelly up by about 2.5%. But similar to Georgia, I am hoping that the tremendous popularity of Kari Lake, the GOP candidate for Governor, helps bring pull Masters across the finish line.

Senate forecast: There are a lot of election analysts out there, but for the sake of this article, we’re going to use Real Clear Politics. They forecast:

Republicans end up with 53 seats

Democrats end up with 47 seats

…a 3-seat pick-up that would give Republicans control of the Senate.

While we can see the massive, red wave on the horizon, this isn’t the time to take our foot off the gas. Make sure your calendar is clear to vote on election day. Offer to drive a [Republican] family member or friend to the polls with you. And if you can’t make it on election day, vote early.

Tomorrow we’ll discuss the midterm Governors races.

[Source: Real Clear Politics, Cook Political Report]

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